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Analysis: Here’s What November’s Midterms Look Like After The Spring Primaries

Analysis: Here’s What November’s Midterms Look Like After The Spring Primaries

Consider this: Democrats’ majority in Congress is razor-thin. The Senate is a 50-50 split (with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote giving them the advantage), and Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s control of the House rests on a tight margin.

This year, all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. Additionally, 36 out of 50 states will elect governors.

Four outstanding Senate primaries to watch. Although a number of big nominating contests are behind us, the Republican primaries in Arizona and Missouri on August 2 and the Democratic primary in Wisconsin on August 9 will carry real implications for November. Even later, the September 13 Republican primary in New Hampshire may shape how competitive the battleground state contest will be.

1. In Arizona, Trump-backed Blake Masters is looking to beat out solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon and state Attorney General Mark Brnovich for a chance to challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who’s running for a full six-year term in November after winning a special election in 2020.

Masters is part of a wave of Republicans who have won Trump endorsements after parroting his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him and downplaying the actions of the pro-Trump mob that attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021.

An audio recording of Masters talking with conservative activists this spring captured him floating the debunked conspiracy theory that the attack on the Capitol may actually have been a false-flag operation set up by the FBI.

2. The GOP primary in Missouri will decide whether the state will be in play in November. Trump has faced both tremendous pressure from supporters of Eric Greitens to endorse the disgraced former governor and tremendous pressure to back an…

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